http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID87322

Markovian modeling of an age- and state-dependent wear process (Contributo in atti di convegno)

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Markovian modeling of an age- and state-dependent wear process (Contributo in atti di convegno) (literal)

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Giorgio M. 1, Guida M. 2, Pulcini G. 3 (2009)
Markovian modeling of an age- and state-dependent wear process
in 6th International Conference on Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods for Estimation and Prediction S.Co. 2009, Milano (Italy)
(literal)

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Many technological systems are subjected, during their operating life, to a gradual wear process which, in the long run, causes an inevitable situation of failure. Looking at the literature, it results that statisticians and engineers have almost always modeled wear processes by independent increments processes, which imply that future wear is assumed to depend, at most, on the system age. Nevertheless, in many cases it seems to be more realistic and appropriate to adopt stochastic processes in which more and/or other factors that drive wear are considered. As such, in this paper, a new wear model is proposed, in which the transition probabilities between process states depend on both the current age and the current wear level of the system. An application based on a real data set referring to the wear process of the cylinder liners of heavy-duty Diesel engines for marine propulsion is analysed and discussed. (literal)

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1) Dip. Ing. Aerospaziale e Meccanica, Seconda Università di Napoli, Aversa (CE); 2) Dip. Ing. dell'Informazione e Ing. Elettrica, Università di Salerno, Fisciano (SA); 3) Istituto Motori, CNR, Napoli. (literal)

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