Reliability and skill of CMIP5 multi-model decadal hindcasts (Contributo in atti di convegno)

Type
Label
  • Reliability and skill of CMIP5 multi-model decadal hindcasts (Contributo in atti di convegno) (literal)
Anno
  • 2013-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
Alternative label
  • Susanna Corti (2013)
    Reliability and skill of CMIP5 multi-model decadal hindcasts
    in SISC First Annual Conference:Climate change and its implications on ecosystem and society, Lecce, 23-24 Settembre 2013
    (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
  • Susanna Corti (literal)
Pagina inizio
  • 103 (literal)
Pagina fine
  • 109 (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#url
  • http://www.sisclima.it/conferenza/proceedings-della-conferenza/?lang=en (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#titoloVolume
  • Climate change and its implications on ecosystem and society - First Annual Conference (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#volumeInCollana
  • 1 (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#pagineTotali
  • 1151 (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni
  • ISAC-CNR (literal)
Titolo
  • Reliability and skill of CMIP5 multi-model decadal hindcasts (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#isbn
  • 9788897666080 (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#curatoriVolume
  • Società Italiana per le Scienze deli Clima (literal)
Abstract
  • The reliability of multi-year predictions of climate is assessed using probabilistic Reliability Diagrams for near-surface air temperature, based on 63 member ensembles of initialised and non-initialised decadal hindcasts using the CMIP5 ten-year decadal climate prediction experiments. It is shown that the reliability from the ensemble system is good for most regions studied, for both initialised and non- initialised hindcasts. Over the North Atlantic the reliability and the resolution of the hindcasts show a substantial improvement for initialised predictions, confirming the importance of the initialisation for this region. Initialisition seems to play a (positive) role in other regions as well, however more experiment are necessary to assess if the improvement is significant. (literal)
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