Long term fluctuations in the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: dynamical origin and predictability (Articolo in rivista)

Type

• Prodotto della ricerca (Classe)
• Articolo in rivista (Classe)

Label

• Long term fluctuations in the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: dynamical origin and predictability (Articolo in rivista) (literal)

Anno

• 1998-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#doi

• 10.1002/qj.49712454607 (literal)

Alternative label

• F. Molteni, S. Corti (1998)
  Long term fluctuations in the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: dynamical origin and predictability
  in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
  (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori

• F. Molteni, S. Corti (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#url

• http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.49712454607/abstract (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume

• 124 (literal)

Rivista

• Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (Rivista)

Note

• ISI Web of Science (WOS) (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni

• Centro di Calcolo Interuniversitario dell'Italia Nord-Orientale Casalecchio di Reno, Italy University of Bologna, Italy (literal)

Titolo

• Long term fluctuations in the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: dynamical origin and predictability (literal)

Abstract

• The stability and predictability of the statistical properties of low-frequency variability are investigated by studying the dynamical origin of long-term changes arising, respectively, from the nonlinear response to variations in atmospheric forcing and from chaotic fluctuations in the energy partition between different variability patterns. Results from long integrations of a realistic quasi-geostrophic (QG) model are analysed, and interpreted on the basis of the behaviour of simple nonlinear dynamical systems. It is shown that chaotic energy fluctuations not only modify the variance explained by different variability patterns, but also may either obscure or enhance the multimodality in the distribution of model states in periods as long as several decades. On the other hand, it is argued that significant variations in atmospheric statistics may be induced by anomalies in the atmospheric forcing originated from the lower boundary. QG simulations show that a strengthening of the planetary-wave forcing due to the asymmetry in the divergent circulation between the western and eastern Pacific increases low-frequency variability in the extratropical Pacific, and may turn the distribution of model states from unimodal to bimodal. Anomalies in low-frequency variance related to changes in atmospheric forcing seem to be larger than those originated by internal dynamics, at least in certain periods and regions, suggesting a potential predictability of these statistics by coupled ocean-atmosphere models. (literal)

Prodotto di

• Climatologia dinamica (TA.P02.012.002) (Modulo)
• Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate (ISAC) (Istituto)

Autore CNR

• SUSANNA CORTI (Persona)

Insieme di parole chiave

• Keywords of "Long term fluctuations in the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: dynamical origin and predictability" (Insieme di parole chiave)

Incoming links:

Prodotto

• Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate (ISAC) (Istituto)
• Climatologia dinamica (TA.P02.012.002) (Modulo)

Autore CNR di

• SUSANNA CORTI (Persona)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#rivistaDi

• Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (Rivista)

Insieme di parole chiave di

• Keywords of "Long term fluctuations in the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: dynamical origin and predictability" (Insieme di parole chiave)