Reliability of decadal predictions (Articolo in rivista)

Type

• Prodotto della ricerca (Classe)
• Articolo in rivista (Classe)

Label

• Reliability of decadal predictions (Articolo in rivista) (literal)

Anno

• 2012-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#doi

• 10.1029/2012GL053354 (literal)

Alternative label

• S. Corti, A. Weishmeier, T.N Palmer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes L. Magnusson (2012)
  Reliability of decadal predictions
  in Geophysical research letters
  (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori

• S. Corti, A. Weishmeier, T.N Palmer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes L. Magnusson (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#url

• http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL053354.shtml (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume

• 39 (literal)

Rivista

• Geophysical research letters (Rivista)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni

• S. Corti European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Bologna, Italy A. Weisheimer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford University, Oxford, UK T. N. Palmer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Physics, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford University, Oxford, UK F. J. Doblas-Reyes Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain L. Magnusson European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK (literal)

Titolo

• Reliability of decadal predictions (literal)

Abstract

• The reliability of multi-year predictions of climate is assessed using probabilistic Attributes Diagrams for near-surface air temperature and sea surface temperature, based on 54 member ensembles of initialised decadal hindcasts using the ECMWF coupled model. It is shown that the reliability from the ensemble system is good over global land areas, Europe and Africa and for the North Atlantic, Indian Ocean and, to a lesser extent, North Pacific basins for lead times up to 6-9 years. North Atlantic SSTs are reliably predicted even when the climate trend is removed, consistent with the known predictability for this region. By contrast, reliability in the Indian Ocean, where external forcing accounts for most of the variability, deteriorates severely after detrending. More conventional measures of forecast quality, such as the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of the ensemble mean, are also considered, showing that the ensemble has significant skill in predicting multi-annual temperature averages. (literal)

Prodotto di

• Climatologia dinamica (TA.P02.012.002) (Modulo)
• Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate (ISAC) (Istituto)

Autore CNR

• SUSANNA CORTI (Persona)

Incoming links:

Prodotto

• Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate (ISAC) (Istituto)
• Climatologia dinamica (TA.P02.012.002) (Modulo)

Autore CNR di

• SUSANNA CORTI (Persona)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#rivistaDi

• Geophysical research letters (Rivista)