Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes: an Anticipatory View (Articolo in rivista)

Type
Label
  • Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes: an Anticipatory View (Articolo in rivista) (literal)
Anno
  • 2002-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
Alternative label
  • Bianchi N. 1, Soncin G. 2 (2002)
    Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes: an Anticipatory View
    (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
  • Bianchi N. 1, Soncin G. 2 (literal)
Pagina inizio
  • 29 (literal)
Pagina fine
  • 42 (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#altreInformazioni
  • After a brief reference to System Dynamics approaches and Backcasting techniques applied in the simulation problem of strategic support to policy-making, a heuristic procedure is proposed involving forecasting and backcasting, through optimal cost indices. Recalling the basic concepts of anticipation and hysteresis, this procedure, formerly dealt with System Dynamics, is then reconsidered in terms of discrete Anticipatory Systems. Finally, the feasibility of hyperincursive anticipatory model application is discussed about solving the problem of some simulation difficulties, also with middleware development, and providing transparent interoperability to ease the preliminary acceptance of social changes by stakeholders. (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume
  • 11 (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#note
  • ISSN 1373-5411, published by CHAOS, Liège, Belgium (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#descrizioneSinteticaDelProdotto
  • Top-level decision-makers, hopefully supported by correct information and computing simulation, must often resolve how to manage the necessary change from a present unsatisfactory and ill-trended system to a more desirable one, focusing on its feature vision. Of course that requires not mere trend-spotting and decision-making based on forecasting, as typical in the prediction of day-by-day operation, but an optimal policy, i.e., a decision strategy or a package of strategies to execute the planned transient meant for sustainability. This might become an early matter of contest and protest if cooperative communication between policy-makers and social actors is not adequate. To this end, a “System Dynamics” software environment was chosen, although in the case forecasting and discontinuities can only be related to changes in policy parameters, possibly resulting from optimisation. The novelty presented in this paper as a way for managing changes in social systems, consists in introducing realistic discontinuities, which requires changes in both the state variables and the structures of the dynamic model. A basic aim is indeed the identification of the discontinuity to be adopted and thus of the strategy necessary to implement the transient, mostly associated to conspicuous discrete events, according to policy-based patterns of system enhancement. (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni
  • 1 CNR, 2 CNR (literal)
Titolo
  • Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes: an Anticipatory View (literal)
Prodotto di
Autore CNR
Insieme di parole chiave

Incoming links:


Prodotto
Autore CNR di
Insieme di parole chiave di
data.CNR.it