http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID68677
A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean Basin (Articolo in rivista)
- Type
- Label
- A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean Basin (Articolo in rivista) (literal)
- Anno
- 2008-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
- Alternative label
Federico S. (1,2), C. Bellecci (1,3) and R. L. Walko (4) (2008)
A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean Basin
in Advances in geosciences (Print)
(literal)
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
- Federico S. (1,2), C. Bellecci (1,3) and R. L. Walko (4) (literal)
- Pagina inizio
- Pagina fine
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume
- Rivista
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni
- 1 CNR-ISAC, Strada prov.le Lecce-Monteroni km 1.2, 73100, Lecce, Italy
2 CRATI Scrl, c/o Universit`a della Calabria, Rende (CS), Italy
3 Facolt`a di Ingegneria-Universit`a di \"Tor Vergata\", via del Politecnico 1, Rome , Italy
4 Pratt School, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA (literal)
- Titolo
- A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean Basin (literal)
- Abstract
- This study investigates a method for best member
selection of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction
System (LEPS) with the goal to increase quantitative precipitation
forecast. A case study that occurred between 22-24
May 2002 over Calabria, southern Italy, is discussed.
Mediterranean storms often develop under upper level disturbances
which are usually associated with high values of
potential vorticity. Anomalously high values of potential vorticity
can be identified by the METEOSAT water vapor channel
centered around 6.3?m because they are associated with
dark band on the METEOSAT image. This signature offers
a chance to identify the upper level disturbance that can be
exploited in data void countries as Calabria.
The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation
of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact
on the precipitation forecast. This issue is utilized in an ensemble
forecast where member forecasts are compatible with
the analysis and forecast errors. These members are grouped
in five clusters by a hierarchical clustering technique which
utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause to compute
distances between members. Therefore the members of a
cluster have a similar representation of the upper level disturbance.
For each cluster a representative member is selected
and its pseudo water vapor image is compared with the corresponding
METEOSAT 7 water vapor image at a specific
time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria. The
subjective evaluation of the comparison allows to gain physical
insight in the storm evolution and to select representative
members which are more in agreement with the METEOSAT
image. (literal)
- Prodotto di
- Autore CNR
Incoming links:
- Prodotto
- Autore CNR di
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#rivistaDi