http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID68664
Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean basin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing (Articolo in rivista)
- Type
- Label
- Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean basin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing (Articolo in rivista) (literal)
- Anno
- 2007-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
- Alternative label
Federico S. (1,2), E. Avolio (1,3), C. Bellecci (1,3), A. Lavagnini (2) and R. L. Walko (4) (2007)
Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean basin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing
in Advances in geosciences (Print)
(literal)
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
- Federico S. (1,2), E. Avolio (1,3), C. Bellecci (1,3), A. Lavagnini (2) and R. L. Walko (4) (literal)
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- Pagina fine
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- Rivista
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- 1 CRATI Scrl, c/o Universit`a della Calabria, Rende (CS), Italy
2 CNR-ISAC, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, Rome , Italy
3 Facolà di Ingegneria-Universit`a di \"Tor Vergata\", via del Politecnico 1, Rome , Italy
4 Pratt School, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA (literal)
- Titolo
- Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean basin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing (literal)
- Abstract
- This study investigates the sensitivity of a
moderate-intense storm that occurred over Calabria, southern
Italy, to upper-tropospheric forcing from a Potential Vorticity
(PV) perspective. A prominent mid-troposheric trough
can be identified for this event, which occurred between
2224 May 2002, and serves as the precursor agent for the
moderate-intense precipitation recorded.
The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation
of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact
on the precipitation forecast and we test the hypothesis in
a two-step approach. First, we examine the degree of uncertainty
by comparing five different scenarios in a Limited
area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) framework
which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause as
the discriminating variable. Pseudo water vapour images of
different scenarios are compared to the corresponding METEOSAT
7 water vapour image at a specific time, antecedent
to the rain occurrence over Calabria, in (literal)
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