Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling (Articolo in rivista)

Type
Label
  • Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling (Articolo in rivista) (literal)
Anno
  • 2007-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
Alternative label
  • Von Hardenberg J, Ferraris L, Rebora N, Provenzale A (2007)
    Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling
    in Nonlinear processes in geophysics
    (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
  • Von Hardenberg J, Ferraris L, Rebora N, Provenzale A (literal)
Pagina inizio
  • 193 (literal)
Pagina fine
  • 199 (literal)
Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume
  • 14 (literal)
Rivista
Note
  • ISI Web of Science (WOS) (literal)
Titolo
  • Meteorological uncertainty and rainfall downscaling (literal)
Abstract
  • We explore the sources of forecast uncertainty in a mixed dynamical-stochastic ensemble prediction chain for small-scale precipitation, suitable for hydrological applications. To this end, we apply the stochastic downscaling method RainFARM to each member of ensemble limited-area forecasts provided by the COSMO-LEPS system. Aim of the work is to quantitatively compare the relative weights of the meteorological uncertainty associated with large-scale synoptic conditions (represented by the ensemble of dynamical forecasts) and of the uncertainty due to small-scale processes (represented by the set of fields generated by stochastic downscaling). We show that, in current operational configurations. small- and larae-scale uncertainties have roughly the same weight. These results can be used to pinpoint the specific components of the prediction chain where a better estimate of forecast uncertainty is needed. (literal)
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