http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID304959
A Stochastic Monte-Carlo Model to Study the Impact of Large Triggered Landslide Events on Road Networks (Abstract/Comunicazione in atti di convegno)
- Type
- Label
- A Stochastic Monte-Carlo Model to Study the Impact of Large Triggered Landslide Events on Road Networks (Abstract/Comunicazione in atti di convegno) (literal)
- Anno
- 2014-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
- Alternative label
Faith Taylor (1), Michele Santangelo (2), Bruce D. Malamud (1), Ivan Marchesini (2), and Fausto Guzzetti (2) (2014)
A Stochastic Monte-Carlo Model to Study the Impact of Large Triggered Landslide Events on Road Networks
in 9th Alexander von Humboldt International Conference, Istanbul, 24 - 28/3/2014
(literal)
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
- Faith Taylor (1), Michele Santangelo (2), Bruce D. Malamud (1), Ivan Marchesini (2), and Fausto Guzzetti (2) (literal)
- Note
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni
- (1) King's College London, Department of Geography, London, United Kingdom, (2) CNR-IRPI,
Perugia, Italy (literal)
- Titolo
- A Stochastic Monte-Carlo Model to Study the Impact of Large Triggered Landslide Events on Road Networks (literal)
- Abstract
- Triggers such as earthquakes or heavy rainfall can result in hundreds to thousands of landslides occurring across
a region within a short space of time. These landslides can in turn result in blockages across the road network,
impacting how people move about a region. Here, we show the development and application of a semi-stochastic
model to simulate how landslides intersect with road networks during a triggered landslide event. This was per-
formed by creating \"synthetic\" triggered landslide inventory maps and overlaying these with a road network map to
identify where road blockages occur. Our landslide-road model has been applied to two regions: (i) the Collazzone
basin (79 km 2 ) in Central Italy where 422 landslides were triggered by rapid snowmelt in January 1997, (ii) the
Oat Mountain quadrangle (155 km 2 ) in California, USA, where 1,350 landslides were triggered by the Northridge
Earthquake (M = 6.7) in January 1994. Initial results show reasonable agreement between model output and the
observed landslide inventories in terms of the number of road blockages. In Collazzone (length of road network =
153 km, landslide density = 5.2 landslides km -2 ), the median number of modelled road blockages over 100 model
runs was 5 (±2.5 standard deviation) compared to the mapped inventory observed number of 5 road blockages.
In Northridge (length of road network = 780 km, landslide density = 8.7 landslides km -2 ), the median number
of modelled road blockages over 100 model runs was 108 (±17.2 standard deviation) compared to the mapped
inventory observed number of 48 road blockages. As we progress with model development, we believe this semi-
stochastic modelling approach will potentially aid civil protection agencies to explore different scenarios of road
network potential damage as the result of different magnitude landslide triggering event scenarios. (literal)
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