http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID291842

Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region (Articolo in rivista)

Type

Prodotto della ricerca (Classe)
Articolo in rivista (Classe)

Label

Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region (Articolo in rivista) (literal)

Anno

2014-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#doi

10.1007/s10113-013-0562-z (literal)

Alternative label

Martin Dubrovsky, Michael Hayes, Pierpaolo Duce, Miroslav Trnka, Mark Svoboda, Pierpaolo Zara (2014)
Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region
in Regional environmental change (Print); Springer-Verlag, Berlin (Germania)
(literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori

Martin Dubrovsky, Michael Hayes, Pierpaolo Duce, Miroslav Trnka, Mark Svoboda, Pierpaolo Zara (literal)

Pagina inizio

1907 (literal)

Pagina fine

1919 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume

14 (literal)

Rivista

Regional environmental change (Rivista)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#pagineTotali

13 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroFascicolo

5 (literal)

Note

ISI Web of Science (WOS) (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni

Czech Academy of Sciences; University of Nebraska Lincoln; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Istituto di Biometeorologia; Mendel University Brno (literal)

Titolo

Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region (literal)

Abstract

Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean. (literal)

Editore