Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance (Articolo in rivista)

Type

• Articolo in rivista (Classe)
• Prodotto della ricerca (Classe)

Label

• Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance (Articolo in rivista) (literal)

Anno

• 2014-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#doi

• 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00784.1 (literal)

Alternative label

• Triacca U.; Pasini A.; Attanasio A.; Giovannelli A.; Lippi M. (2014)
  Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance
  in Journal of climate
  (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori

• Triacca U.; Pasini A.; Attanasio A.; Giovannelli A.; Lippi M. (literal)

Pagina inizio

• 7903 (literal)

Pagina fine

• 7910 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#url

• http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84907821756&partnerID=q2rCbXpz (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume

• 27 (literal)

Rivista

• Journal of climate (Rivista)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroFascicolo

• 20 (literal)

Note

• Scopu (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni

• Department of Computer Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; National Research Council (CNR), Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Monterotondo Stazione, Rome, Italy; Department of Economics and Finance, University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy; Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, Rome, Italy (literal)

Titolo

• Clarifying the roles of greenhouse gases and ENSO in recent global warming through their prediction performance (literal)

Abstract

• It is well known that natural external forcings and decadal-to-millennial variability drove changes in the climate system throughout the Holocene. Regarding recent times, attribution studies have shown that greenhouse gases (GHGs) determined the trend of temperature (T) in the last half century, while circulation patterns contributed to modify its interannual, decadal, or multidecadal behavior over this period. Here temperature predictions based on vector autoregressive models (VARs) have been used to study the influence of GHGs and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on recent temperature behavior. It is found that in the last decades of steep temperature increase, ENSO shows just a very short-range influence on T, while GHGs are dominant for each forecast horizon. Conversely and quite surprisingly, in the previous quasi-stationary period the influences of GHGs and ENSO are comparable, even at longer range. Therefore, if the recent hiatus in global temperatures should persist into the near future, an enhancement of the role of ENSO can be expected. Finally, the predictive ability of GHGs is more evident in the Southern Hemisphere, where the temperature series is smoother. (literal)

Prodotto di

• Institute of Atmospheric pollution Research (IIA) (Istituto)
• Sviluppo e applicazione di modelli numerici atmosferici dalla scala urbana a quella continentale e globale (TA.P02.029.001) (Modulo)

Autore CNR

• ANTONELLO PASINI (Persona)

Incoming links:

Prodotto

• Institute of Atmospheric pollution Research (IIA) (Istituto)
• Sviluppo e applicazione di modelli numerici atmosferici dalla scala urbana a quella continentale e globale (TA.P02.029.001) (Modulo)

Autore CNR di

• ANTONELLO PASINI (Persona)
• http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/unitaDiPersonaleEsterno/ID24632

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#rivistaDi

• Journal of climate (Rivista)