Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy (Articolo in rivista)

Type

• Articolo in rivista (Classe)
• Prodotto della ricerca (Classe)

Label

• Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy (Articolo in rivista) (literal)

Anno

• 2015-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#doi

• 10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.019 (literal)

Alternative label

• Stefano Luigi Gariano (a,b), Maria Teresa Brunetti (a,b), Giulio Iovine (c), Massimo Melillo (a), Silvia Peruccacci (a), Oreste Terranova (c), Carmela Vennari (d,e), Fausto Guzzetti (c) (2015)
  Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy
  in Geomorphology (Amst.); Elsevier, Amsterdam (Paesi Bassi)
  (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori

• Stefano Luigi Gariano (a,b), Maria Teresa Brunetti (a,b), Giulio Iovine (c), Massimo Melillo (a), Silvia Peruccacci (a), Oreste Terranova (c), Carmela Vennari (d,e), Fausto Guzzetti (c) (literal)

Pagina inizio

• 653 (literal)

Pagina fine

• 665 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#url

• http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X14005212 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume

• 228 (literal)

Rivista

• Geomorphology (Rivista)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#pagineTotali

• 13 (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroFascicolo

• 1 (literal)

Note

• Scopu (literal)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni

• a) CNR IRPI, via Madonna Alta 126, 06128, Perugia, Italy b) Università degli Studi di Perugia, Dipartimento di Fisica e Geologia, via A. Pascoli, 06123, Perugia, Italy c) CNR IRPI, via Cavour 6, 87036, Rende (CS), Italy d) CNR IRPI, via Amendola 122 I, 70126 Bari, Italy e) Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Largo San Marcellino 10, 80138, Napoli, Italy (literal)

Titolo

• Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy (literal)

Abstract

• Empirical rainfall thresholds are tools to forecast the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Accurate prediction of landslide occurrence requires reliable thresholds, which need to be properly validated before their use in operational warning systems. We exploited a catalogue of 200 rainfall conditions that have resulted in at least 223 shallow landslides in Sicily, southern Italy, in the 11-year period 2002-2011, to determine regional event duration-cumulated event rainfall (ED) thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence. We computed ED thresholds for different exceedance probability levels and determined the uncertainty associated to the thresholds using a consolidated bootstrap nonparametric technique. We further determined subregional thresholds, and we studied the role of lithology and seasonal periods in the initiation of shallow landslides in Sicily. Next, we validated the regional rainfall thresholds using 29 rainfall conditions that have resulted in 42 shallow landslides in Sicily in 2012. We based the validation on contingency tables, skill scores, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 50%. Validation of rainfall thresholds is hampered by lack of information on landslide occurrence. Therefore, we considered the effects of variations in the contingencies and the skill scores caused by lack of information. Based on the results obtained, we propose a general methodology for the objective identification of a threshold that provides an optimal balance between maximization of correct predictions and minimization of incorrect predictions, including missed and false alarms. We expect that the methodology will increase the reliability of rainfall thresholds, fostering the operational use of validated rainfall thresholds in operational early warning system for regional shallow landslide forecasting. (literal)

Editore

• Elsevier (Editore)

Prodotto di

• Valutazione del rischio posto da fenomeni geo-idrologici e sviluppo di strategie di mitigazione (TA.P05.006.002) (Modulo)
• Istituto di ricerca per la protezione idrogeologica (IRPI) (Istituto)

Autore CNR

• SILVIA PERUCCACCI (Persona)
• FAUSTO GUZZETTI (Unità di personale interno)
• MASSIMO MELILLO (Persona)
• STEFANO LUIGI GARIANO (Unità di personale esterno)
• MARIA TERESA BRUNETTI (Unità di personale interno)
• ORESTE GIUSEPPE TERRANOVA (Persona)
• GIULIO IOVINE (Unità di personale interno)

Insieme di parole chiave

• Keywords of "Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy" (Insieme di parole chiave)

Incoming links:

Autore CNR di

• FAUSTO GUZZETTI (Unità di personale interno)
• GIULIO IOVINE (Unità di personale interno)
• STEFANO LUIGI GARIANO (Unità di personale esterno)
• ORESTE GIUSEPPE TERRANOVA (Persona)
• MARIA TERESA BRUNETTI (Unità di personale interno)
• SILVIA PERUCCACCI (Persona)
• MASSIMO MELILLO (Persona)
• http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/unitaDiPersonaleEsterno/ID22434

Prodotto

• Istituto di ricerca per la protezione idrogeologica (IRPI) (Istituto)
• Valutazione del rischio posto da fenomeni geo-idrologici e sviluppo di strategie di mitigazione (TA.P05.006.002) (Modulo)

Editore di

• Elsevier (Editore)

Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#rivistaDi

• Geomorphology (Rivista)

Insieme di parole chiave di

• Keywords of "Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy" (Insieme di parole chiave)