http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID276867
Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria of autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments (Articolo in rivista)
- Type
- Label
- Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria of autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments (Articolo in rivista) (literal)
- Anno
- 2013-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
- Alternative label
A. Buzzi, S. Davolio, P. Malguzzi, O. Drofa, and D. Mastrangelo (2013)
Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria of autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments
in Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Online)
(literal)
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
- A. Buzzi, S. Davolio, P. Malguzzi, O. Drofa, and D. Mastrangelo (literal)
- Pagina inizio
- Pagina fine
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#altreInformazioni
- www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/1/1/2013/
doi:10.5194/nhessd-1-1-2013 (literal)
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume
- Rivista
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- Titolo
- Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria of autumn 2011: numerical forecasting experiments (literal)
- Abstract
- The Liguria coastal region in Italy was affected by two heavy rainfall and consequent
severe flood episodes that occurred at the end of October and beginning of Novem-
ber 2011. The very large accumulated precipitation maxima were associated, in both
cases, with intense and quasi-stationary convective systems developed near the coast,
both related to orographic lift and similar low-level mesoscale flow patterns over the
Ligurian Sea, giving rise to pronounced convergence lines.
This study aims at analyzing the main dynamical processes responsible for the on-
set, lifecycle, intensity and localization/propagation of the precipitating systems, using
the ISAC convection-permitting model MOLOCH applied at different spatial resolutions
and comparing model output fields with available observations. The ability of the model
in forecasting quantitative precipitation (QPF) is tested with respect to initial analysis
and model horizontal resolution. Although precipitation maxima remain underestimated
in the model experiments, it is shown that forecast errors of QPF in both amount and
position tend to decrease with increasing grid resolution.
It is shown that model accuracy in forecasting rainfall amounts and localization of the
precipitating systems critically depends, in both episodes, on the ability in representing
the cold air outflow from the Po Valley to the Ligurian Sea, which determines the posi-
tion and intensity of the mesoscale convergence lines over the sea. Such convergence
lines controls, together with the lifting produced by the Apennines chain surrounding
the coast, the onset of the severe convection. (literal)
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