http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID255465
Model-simulated regimes over the Northern Hemisphere (Articolo in rivista)
- Type
- Label
- Model-simulated regimes over the Northern Hemisphere (Articolo in rivista) (literal)
- Anno
- 2007-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)
- Alternative label
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#autori
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#url
- http://meetings.copernicus.org/www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2007/08705/EGU2007-J-08705.pdf (literal)
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#numeroVolume
- Rivista
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#affiliazioni
- Titolo
- Model-simulated regimes over the Northern Hemisphere (literal)
- Abstract
- The large-scale circulation of the extratropical atmosphere can be described by the
alternation of circulation regimes (or weather regimes), in which anomalies in the
amplitude and phase of planetary waves are dynamically equilibrated by variations
in diabatic energy sources and non-linear interactions with synoptic-scale eddies. The
variation of circulation regime properties is an important issue for climate predictions,
from seasonal forecasts to future climate scenarios. However, either when validating
model results against observations, or when comparing regime properties in different
periods, one is faced with the problem of estimating the significance of the products of
complex statistical tools. Specifically, one needs to quantify the uncertainty in regime
properties arising from the internal, chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere, and use such
information to assess the predictability of such properties as a response to external
variations in forcing terms.
Given the limitations of the observed record of upper-air fields, it is very difficult
to address these issues from re-analysis data. However, ensembles of GCM simula-
tions can provide reliable estimates of the effects of internal vs. external variability in
regime properties. Here, we make use of ERA40 re-analysis data and of a large set
of ensemble simulations with atmospheric GCMs to investigate the following specific
topics:
a) To what extent are the properties of model-simulated regimes over the Northern
Hemisphere and the Euro-Atlantic region consistent with those of regimes obtained
from re-analysis data?
b) Are the differences between observed regime properties in different periods of the
late 20th century within the range of internal atmospheric variability for the same
external forcing?
c) Are interannual variations in regime frequencies (at least partially) reproducible as
a function of SST anomalies? (literal)
- Prodotto di
- Autore CNR
- Insieme di parole chiave
Incoming links:
- Prodotto
- Autore CNR di
- Http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/pubblicazioni.owl#rivistaDi
- Insieme di parole chiave di