http://www.cnr.it/ontology/cnr/individuo/prodotto/ID103661

Climate Change Impacts for Land Suitability and Potential Crop Yield in Italy (Abstract/Poster in rivista)

Type

Abstract/Poster in rivista (Classe)
Prodotto della ricerca (Classe)

Label

Climate Change Impacts for Land Suitability and Potential Crop Yield in Italy (Abstract/Poster in rivista) (literal)

Anno

2008-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 (literal)

Alternative label

Mereu V, Iocola I, Spano D, Murgia V, Duce P, Cesaraccio C, Tubiello FN, Fischer G (2008)
Climate Change Impacts for Land Suitability and Potential Crop Yield in Italy
(literal)

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Mereu V, Iocola I, Spano D, Murgia V, Duce P, Cesaraccio C, Tubiello FN, Fischer G (literal)

Pagina inizio

GC43C-0764 (literal)

Pagina fine

GC43C-0764 (literal)

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89 (literal)

Rivista

Eos - Transactions American Geophysical Union (Rivista)

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Eos Trans. AGU, 89(53), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC43C-0764 (literal)

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1 (literal)

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53 (literal)

Note

Poster (literal)

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Dipartimento di Economia e Sistemi Arborei, Università di Sassari Columbia University, New York, USA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis-IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (literal)

Titolo

Climate Change Impacts for Land Suitability and Potential Crop Yield in Italy (literal)

Abstract

There is significant concern about the potential impacts of climate change and its variability on agricultural production worldwide. A good case study for analyzing vulnerability to climate change is represented by the Mediterranean area, which accounts for most of the global olive oil and more than 10% of total cereal productions. Considerable efforts has been recently expended on analyzing the effects of climate variability on agricultural crops using the scenario approach. The general goal of this work is to conduct a land suitability analysis for selected Mediterranean crops (wheat and olive) in Italy and to assess the impact of climate change on productions. The analysis is based on the Agro-Ecological Zoning (AEZ) methodology developed by FAO/IIASA (1999) that provides a standardized framework for the characterization of climate, soil and terrain conditions relevant to agricultural production. The AEZ results allow to quantify impacts on land productivity of historical climate variability as well as of potential future climate change. In this work, AEZ model was applied to the baseline climate period of 1961--1990 and to climate change scenarios based on two General Circulation Models (HadCM3 and CSIRO) SRES scenarios A2 and B2. The main results consisted in the assessments of land suitability and crop productivity for olive and wheat in Italy up to 2080. In general, the agro-climatic assessment with climate projections of two GCMs for Italy shows an increase in surface of lands suitable for agriculture. In particular, a large increase is predicted for northern Italy. The Suitability Index values from both SRES scenario indicate a larger suitable area for olive and wheat and, consequently, an increase of potential agricultural land and crop production. Climate change scenarios for Italy up to 2080 show significant impacts on the extension and location of cultivation areas of wheat and olive. (literal)

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